Integrated Risk Assessment for Monumental Structures under Climate Change and Seismic Hazards
Integrated Risk Assessment for Monumental Structures under Climate Change and Seismic Hazards
Historic monumental structures face increasing vulnerability from climate change and seismic hazards, requiring integrated assessment methods to guide conservation efforts. This paper presents a modular framework that combines climatic degradation modelling with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to evaluate the evolving condition of monumental masonry. The effective masonry elastic modulus is adopted as the principal screening-level state variable because it is highly sensitive to cracking and loss of composite action and can be transferred directly to equivalent-linear structural assessment; alternative indicators, such as shear modulus or shear-wave velocity, may also be used when suitable monitoring data are available. Material deterioration is reconstructed from current mechanical properties using GSI-based back-analysis, while burial or protection periods are treated as intervals of frozen decay. Climate-driven ageing is then updated through persistence-based indicators derived from historical and projected daily climate series, and seismic effects are represented through past events, future exceedance probabilities, and possible restoration-induced recoveries. For seismic hazard, the framework uses code-consistent zonal hazard and EC8 soil-category information as a first-order site-specific representation, while allowing future refinement through dedicated local site-response studies. The Roman Balneum in Rafina, Greece, is used as a demonstration case. Under the illustrative high-emission climate projection adopted here, climatic forcing accelerates deterioration and yields a moderate-to-high Heritage Risk Index (HRI) by 2100. The method is intended as a decision-support tool under limited data and should therefore be interpreted together with parameter ranges, climate-scenario spread, and sensitivity analyses rather than as a single deterministic forecast.
Keywords: Heritage masonry; elastic modulus; climatic ageing; persistence indicators; salt crystallization; PSHA; Eurocode 8; decision support.
Dimitrios Egglezos
4th International Symposium on the Preservation of Monuments and Historic Sites
Greek Monuments
https://doi.org/10.53243/tc301-2026-93