Effect of variability parameters on 3D probabilistic slope stability prediction

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Publication Title
Effect of variability parameters on 3D probabilistic slope stability prediction

Abstract
Uncertainties in landslide assessment arise substantially from spatial variability of geotechnical and hydrological parameters. Spatially variable model parameters are often represented by a probability density function with a mean and a standard deviation, and a covariance function with a spatial correlation length. The variability parameters are frequently selected based on values in literature due to a lack of real data, thus not necessarily representing the true spatial variability characteristics of a given problem. Such a selection might lead to overestimated or underestimated safety levels. Therefore, there is a need to quantify how the choice of variability parameters affects the safety levels. This study addresses this need by studying the effect of variability parameters on the landslide slope stability predictions in terms of factor of safety using the 3-Dimensional Probabilistic Landslide Susceptibility model (3DPLS) on a simplified 2 m-thick inclined slope. Different sizes of an ellipsoidal sliding surface were analysed for a range of variability parameters over varying extent of problem domains. The results indicate that variability parameters significantly affect the safety levels depending on the extent of the problem domain and the size of the sliding surface. In addition, the critical spatial correlation length leading to the lowest safety level is found to have strong correlation with the size of the sliding surface.
Authors
Emir Ahmet Oguz; T. M. H. Le

Published In

18th European Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (ECSMGE2024)

Theme

C - Risk analysis and safety evaluation

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