Optimal pavement design using the failure probability
Optimal pavement design using the failure probability
In this paper, an optimal pavement design with and without geosynthetic reinforcement is discussed and evaluated. The probability of failure is calculated for these two optimal designs and the costs of the structures are compared. For this purpose, an analysis with three main steps was performed. The first step is to develop a deterministic model that includes a computational model of the response variables of interest for a given set of input parameters such as subgrade conditions and live load. In the second step, an uncertainty model was developed in which the California Bearing Ratio of the subgrade, the total number of axle load passes, and the depth of frost penetration were treated as random variables and their values were simulated using Monte Carlo simulation. In the final step, the response variables of the deterministic model were calculated according to the uncertain parameters defined in the uncertainty model. The results of the failure probability analysis allow us to evaluate important elements of the pavement structure that should be changed in order to reduce the probability of failure.
R. Varga; Primoz Jelusic; T. Bracko; Borut Macuh; B. Zlender
18th European Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (ECSMGE2024)
C - Risk analysis and safety evaluation
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