Revisit a landslide in Boulder clay at Selset, Yorkshire: insights from probabilistic analysis

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Publication Title
Revisit a landslide in Boulder clay at Selset, Yorkshire: insights from probabilistic analysis

Abstract
Skempton and Brown (1961) presented a well-documented landslide case study involving a heavily overconsolidated boulder clay deposit in Selset, Yorkshire, UK. While the laboratory testing program revealed significant inherent variability in soil parameters, their analyses were limited to deterministic approaches. This study revisits their work within the framework of probabilistic analysis. We employed Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) alongside Random Field Finite Element Limit Analysis (RF-FELA), which explicitly accounts for spatial variability. Additionally, we conducted MCS using a closed-form solution, implicitly neglecting spatial variability, i.e., assuming a scale of fluctuation tending towards infinity. Our analysis revealed that neglecting spatial variability can lead to an overestimation of the probability of failure. Nevertheless, MCS with the closed-form solution substantially reduces the computational time required by RF-FELA from hours (or even days) to minutes, making it an efficient tool for preliminary probabilistic analysis. The case study also demonstrate that probabilistic slope stability analysis provides more profound insights, offers a more transparent means of quantifying slope risk, and better captures the rapid increase in risk as the verge of failure is approached.
Authors
W. Huang; S. Bulolo; W. Zhang; M. Zhang

Published In

18th European Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (ECSMGE2024)

Theme

C - Risk analysis and safety evaluation

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