Blind Prediction Contest: Piles under Monotonic and Cyclic Lateral Loading

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Many geotechnical structures rely on piles or pile groups for foundations, both onshore and offshore. Predicting their load-deformation behaviour remains challenging, especially for cyclically loaded piles. The rapid expansion of offshore wind energy necessitates accurate predictions of pile behaviour under complex loading conditions. Examples include monopile foundations and anchor piles for floating offshore wind turbines. Within the GEOLAB project, the authors conducted an international benchmarking exercise to assess current practices. This exercise invited engineers and researchers to submit predictions on the outcomes of two physical model tests on a laterally loaded pile. The tests used an instrumented model pile with a diameter of 325 mm and a length of 3 m, embedded 2 m into dense, compacted sand. In the first test, a monotonically increasing lateral load was applied until a lateral displacement of 20% of the pile diameter was achieved. In the second test, 13,000 sinusoidal lateral loading cycles were applied in two packages with different mean values and amplitudes. Forty-five sensors monitored pile displacement, rotation, applied force, and strains along the pile shaft. Contestant teams could use any prediction method (empirical, analytical, or numerical) and had to include a brief description of the methods used. Predictions were evaluated against experimental values in different categories (force, displacement, rotation, and strain). This paper analyses the submitted predictions, assessing their accuracy in each category, the methods utilized, and the profiles (researchers or practicing engineers) of the participants. The analysis provides insights into the current state of the art and practice in predicting the behaviour of piles under monotonic and cyclic loading.

5th International Symposium on Frontiers in Offshore Geotechnics (ISFOG2025)

9 - Monopile design to cyclic loads: quasi-static, dynamic and seismic loads